Thessaloniki Chamber of Commerce and Industry (TCCI), consistent to its efforts to increase information levels and inform both businesses and organizations (public or private) as well as Thessaloniki’s community, continues the periodic Survey of Economic Climate (at the Prefecture of Thessaloniki) on the four business sectors of the economy and consumers.

The Survey of Economic Climate at the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (TCCI Barometer) is conducted twice a year during the 2^nd fortnight of March and September, with a total sample of 1500 respondents (800 companies and 700 consumers). The survey covers all four business sectors of the economy (industry, services, retail trade and constructions).

“TCCI Barometer” survey is conducted via telephone interviews with the managers of businesses (General Managers, or Finance Managers, or Sales Managers or the owners themselves in case of “smaller” companies) and with the use of questionnaires used by the Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research and the European Union, so that the results are comparable with the equivalent National and European surveys.

 

 

 

1.      CONSUMER SURVEY

The “Consumer Confidence Indicator” is calculated based on consumer’s predictions for the general economic situation of the country, the economic situation of their household, the intention for saving and their prediction for unemployment levels. It must be mentioned that predictions are between +100 (all consumers anticipate an increase) to -100 (all consumers anticipate a decrease) and appear as differences between positive and negative responses. In particular, a negative difference means that the percentage of those who predict a decrease is higher than the one of those who predict an increase and vice – versa.

According to the survey data, consumers in the Thessaloniki Regional Unit remain pessimistic, although slightly less so compared to September 2025. Thus, the consumer confidence index in Thessaloniki stands at -31 points, showing a slight increase of 4 points compared to September 2025.

The survey records a small improvement in consumer confidence in Thessaloniki, as is also the case at the national level, while at the European level a slight decline is observed compared to September 2025. In general, there has been a stagnation of the consumer confidence index from March 2023 until today, with minor fluctuations, following a significant recovery from the very low levels seen in 2022 due to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. At the root of this stagnation lies the worsening of expectations, driven by the entrenched perception of high electricity and energy costs. The cumulative percentage of those who consider electricity bills to be burdensome or high, resulting in difficulty or inability to pay them, has stabilized at around 70%, following a temporary drop to 57% in March 2024.At the same time, after a notable decrease in concern about further price increases that was observed in March 2024 (the index for expected price developments over the next 12 months had dropped to +24 from +50 in September 2023), worry about further price increases has resurfaced over the past year (the relevant index rose to +37 last September and now stands at +32), contributing to sustained financial insecurity among households and, consequently, to ongoing pessimism.

Overall, there is a recorded stability or slight improvement in all indices measuring consumer sentiment.

Specifically, consumers in Thessaloniki report:

• Consistently negative assessment of household financial conditions for the past period, but reduced pessimism about future developments, compared to the previous six months. Specifically, the percentage of households expecting their situation to worsen has dropped (43% from 50%), while the percentage expecting improvement or stability has slightly increased (from 44% to 48%).
  
  
• An increase in the percentage of those who believe that the country's general economic situation improved significantly or somewhat over the past 12 months (12% compared to 7%). At the same time, the percentage of those who believe the general economic situation will improve in the next 12 months remains stable (12% ve­rsus 11% last September 2025).
  
  
• High levels of perceived inflation: Nearly all consumers, regardless of financial status, felt the impact of price increases over the past year, as 94% state that prices rose (compared to 93% in the previous September). There is also a slight decrease – though still at a high level – in those who believe consumer prices will increase over the next 12 months (77% compared to 84% last September).
  
  
• A small improvement in consumer expectations regarding unemployment, as 20% (total) believe that unemployment will decrease "significantly" or "slightly" (compared to 17% in September 2024), while 36% expect unemployment to increase (slightly or significantly) over the next six months (compared to 39% in September 2024).
  
  
• Stagnation – but still in negative territory – in the index assessing the current situation for making major purchases (only 7% consider the timing suitable for significant purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic appliances, etc., the same as in September 2024). There is also a minimal improvement in the index reflecting intentions to make such purchases in the future.
  
  
• Slight increase in the intention to save (19% now compared to 16% in September 2024), while the percentage of those currently saving remains stable (22% compared to 23% last September).
  
  
• Consumer intention to purchase a car remains relatively stable in Thessaloniki, with 5% saying it is very or quite likely they will buy a car (compared to 4% in September 2024).
  
  
• Intention to buy or build a house over the next 12 months remains stable (3% compared to 2% in September 2024), while intention to renovate or improve a home also remains steady (11% compared to 12% in September 2024).

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. INDUSTRY SURVEY

The “Business Expectations Index for Industry” in the Thessaloniki Regional Unit shows a further slight decline and remains slightly negative, continuing its fluctuation around neutral ground as has been recorded over the past two years. Nevertheless, it remains close to the highest levels recorded since the launch of the “TCCI Barometer” in 2009.

Thus, the balance of positive versus negative assessments for the “Business Expectations Index for Industry” now stands at -5 points in Thessaloniki, compared to -3 in September 2024. It is worth noting that this index reached its lowest point in March 2020 since the EBETH Barometer was established in March 2009, while in September 2021, it reached its highest level ever recorded by the “TCCI Barometer”, following a similar trend to both national and European indices.

More specifically, the views of industrial enterprises in Thessaloniki can be summarized as follows:

·        Expectations regarding production over the past six months have worsened, with the relevant index now entering negative territory (-5 from +4 in September 2024 and +11 in March 2024, which marked the highest level in the Barometer’s history). However, expectations for future production in Thessaloniki remain positive, showing stability (+22 compared to +20 in September 2024).

·        Inventory and production capacity management is being handled quite satisfactorily. However, the evaluation of the current operational level of production capacity shows further deterioration (73% compared to 75% in September 2024 and 79% in March 2024, the highest recorded value of the index since the Barometer was established). Additionally, the secured months of production based on orders have significantly decreased (3.6 currently, compared to 4.4 in September 2024 and 4.7 in March 2024, also the highest value recorded by the Barometer).

·        The index evaluating the overall current level of orders shows a clear deterioration (-38 now from -32 in September 2024), and expectations for export performance over the next six months have also worsened significantly, with the index falling to +14 from +30 in the previous six months. These trends may indicate growing concern and uncertainty among Thessaloniki’s export-oriented manufacturing firms, especially as the survey coincided largely with the announcements made by the U.S. President regarding the imposition of tariffs on imported goods from other countries (including Greek exports to the U.S.). However, as developments on this issue are still unfolding, the full impact may become clearer in the next round of survey results.

·        Expectations for further price increases over the next six months remain almost unchanged, while expectations for employment remain high (+18, the same as in September 2024, at the highest level since the EBETH Barometer was launched).

·        Financial constraints have returned to the top position among factors limiting production for manufacturing businesses in Thessaloniki (44% compared to 43% in the previous half), followed closely by lack of labor force in second place (40% compared to 43%), and insufficient demand in third (38% compared to 37% in the last six months).

3. SERVICES PROVIDERS BUSINESS SURVEY

The Business Expectations Index in the Services sector is recorded with a slight further decline, though it remains in positive territory.

More specifically, the Business Expectations Index for the Services sector stands at +15, compared to +20 in the previous half-year.

In particular, service-providing businesses in the Thessaloniki Regional Unit report:

• A worsening in the assessment of their current business situation, dropping to -3 from +8 in March 2024, while the evaluation of demand over the past six months remains in positive territory at +15, although clearly reduced compared to the previous half-year (+25).
  
  
• Expectations for demand in the next six months remain very positive, now at +32, showing improvement from the previous half-year (+25).
  
  
• Positive expectations for employment in the sector over the next half-year continue, now at the highest level since the TCCI Barometer was established, while further price increases are also anticipated over the next six months.

 

 

 

4. RETAIL TRADE BUSINESS SURVEY

The business climate in the Retail Trade sector in the Thessaloniki Regional Unit has deteriorated compared to September 2024, with the Retail Trade Business Expectations Index now entering negative territory.

Specifically, the balance of positive vs. negative estimates for the Retail Trade Business Expectations Index is now at -7, compared to +1 in September 2024.

In more detail, the views of retail businesses in the Thessaloniki region can be summarized as follows:

• The index assessing the evolution of sales over the past six months shows a sharp drop, falling from +1 in September 2024 to -32 now. However, expectations for sales in the next six months have significantly improved, rising from +3 in September 2024 to +19 currently. Additionally, estimates for the evolution of orders in the next half-year have clearly improved, returning to positive ground (from -13 in September 2024 to +5 now).
  
  
• A slight increase in employment in the sector is forecast for the upcoming period, while there is a strong trend toward price increases in the immediate future.

 

 

 

 

 

5. CONSTRUCTION SECTOR BUSINESS SURVEY

The Business Expectations Index in the Construction sector remains in positive territory, though with a slight decline.

Specifically, the balance of positive vs. negative estimates for the Construction Business Expectations Index stands at +6 points in the Thessaloniki region, compared to +9 points in September 2024 and +14 in March 2024, which was the highest level recorded since the start of the TCCI Barometer measurements.

More specifically, the views of construction companies in the Thessaloniki region are summarized as follows:

• Estimates regarding the development of construction activity over the past six months remain at a high level for the sixth consecutive semester, currently at +26 points (slightly lower than the all-time high of +38 points recorded in March 2024).
  
  
• A slight decline is noted in current levels of orders in the construction sector (though they still remain close to the highest levels in the Barometer's history).
  
  
• There is continued strong optimism about employment prospects in the sector over the next six months, remaining at the same level as the previous semester, along with a steadily upward trend in local prices.
  
  
• The shortage of labor has become even more pronounced as the primary limiting factor for construction activity, cited by 71% of respondents (up from 59% in the previous six months). This is followed by financial constraints (42% vs. 45% in September 2024), while limited demand remains stable, mentioned by 17% of companies (same as the previous semester).

 

 

 

 

 

6.      TCCI Barometer – AD HOC CONSUMER QUESTIONS

Aiming at the optimum use of "TCCI Barometer" as a research tool with a view to better inform the business community of Thessaloniki, new ad-hoc questions were incorporated in “TCCI Barometer’s” questionnaires. The questions were placed at the end of standardized questionnaires used "TCCI Barometer" to ensure continuity and reliability of the results of "TCCI Barometer".

• Electricity Bills

The percentage of households who consider electricity bills high and state that they struggle to pay them remains almost stable compared to September 2024 (60% versus 62% in the previous six-month period). At the same time, there's a slight increase to 32% in the perce­ntage of households who say that their electricity bills are reasonable and manageable, up from 29% in September 2024.

• Heating Bills

Similarly, the percentage of households who consider heating bills high and report difficulty in paying them remains stable at 58%, the same as in the previous six-month period.
Meanwhile, 9% of households state that heating bills are unbearable and that they are unable to pay them, an increase from 6% in September 2024. On the other hand, the percentage of those who consider heating bills reasonable and manageable has slightly decreased, from 31% in September 2024 to 29% currently.

• Fly Over – Metro

More than 4 in 10 consumers in the Thessaloniki region (39%) report being “Very” or “Quite” negatively affected by the construction works of Thessaloniki’s elevated peripheral road (Fly Over), a decrease from 45% in September 2024. At the same time, there is a significant increase in those who say they are not affected at all by the Fly Over construction works (48%, up from 39% in the previous survey), suggesting that residents are adapting to the new conditions created by the project’s launch.

Around 1 in 3 residents of the Thessaloniki region (32%) say they use the city's Metro, either daily (7%), a few times per week (12%), or a few times per month (13%).
Considering that the Metro line currently serves only the Municipality of Thessaloniki, the breakdown by location is noteworthy: Among residents of the Municipality of Thessaloniki, 48% use the Metro at least a few times per month (14% daily, 20% weekly, 14% monthly).Among young people aged 16–29, the usage is even higher: 63% report using the Metro daily or a few times per week.

Among Metro users, the main reasons for using the system are leisure and relaxation (going for a walk, social outings, etc.) at 48%, followed by:

Commuting to/from work (18%), shopping/visiting markets (16%), business/professional reasons (8%), other reasons (8%).Furthermore, 2 in 3 Metro users express satisfaction with the Metro’s operation so far: “Very satisfied” (32%), “Quite satisfied” (33%). Only 9% say they are “A little” (7%) or “Not at all” (2%) satisfied. For about 2 in 3 residents in the Thessaloniki region (63%), the Metro has not changed their travel patterns, because it doesn’t serve their area.

However, 16% now use their car less for getting around the city. Another 16% use public buses less, 10% report traveling to/from the city center more frequently, 9% visit the central shopping district more often, 5% visit suburban shopping areas more frequently.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.          TCCI Barometer – AD HOC ENTERPRISES QUESTIONS

Aiming at the optimum use of "TCCI Barometer" as a research tool with a view to better inform the business community of Thessaloniki, new ad-hoc questions were incorporated in “TCCI Barometer’s” questionnaires. The questions were placed at the end of standardized questionnaires used "TCCI Barometer" to ensure continuity and reliability of the results of "TCCI Barometer".

• Raw Material Shortages

In total, nearly 1 in 4 businesses (23%) in the Thessaloniki region report issues related to shortages of raw materials or products in the market—about the same as in September 2024—either to a small extent (16%) or to a large extent (7%).

• Most Significant Problems

The high cost of taxation has increased further and remains the top concern reported among the two most significant problems faced by businesses in Thessaloniki (44% compared to 41% in September 2024).

The high cost of energy and fuel remains in second place (29% compared to 27% in September 2024), while in third place is the cost of raw materials/products (23% compared to 22% in September 2024). Bureaucracy and transaction processes with the public sector consistently remain in fourth place (17% compared to 16% in September 2024).

Reports related to limited demand (15%) and liquidity issues (14%, up from 12% in September 2024) remain almost unchanged. Notably, the high labor cost (both wage and non-wage) is now mentioned by a total of 22% of businesses, compared to 20% in September 2024, 19% in March 2024, 13% in September 2023, and 12% in March 2023.

By sector:

• Trade sector businesses report high taxation (50%) and limited demand (21%) at higher rates than the overall average (44% and 15%, respectively).
• Services sector businesses emphasize bureaucracy and public sector transaction issues (28%) versus 17% overall.
• Construction sector businesses are more affected by the high cost of raw materials (34%) and bureaucracy issues (24%), compared to the overall rates of 23% and 17%.
• Manufacturing/Industry sector businesses highlight the high cost of energy/fuels (41%) and high cost of raw materials/products (31%), compared to 29% and 23% in the overall average.

• Metro – Fly Over

About 1 in 3 businesses (34%) in Thessaloniki believe that the operation of the Metro has boosted the central market of the city but weakened suburban markets.
An equal percentage believe that the Metro has not brought any significant change to markets, while 12% believe it has strengthened both the central and suburban markets. Also, 1 in 2 businesses (47%) report experiencing difficulties or negative effects due to the ongoing Fly Over construction works on Thessaloniki’s ring road. This percentage is even higher among construction sector businesses (58%).However, it is worth noting that a significant portion of businesses in Thessaloniki have adapted to the new traffic conditions caused by the Fly Over works, as the percentage of those reporting negative impacts has dropped significantly by 26 percentage points.

• Investments – Investment Programs

Around 3 in 10 businesses (29%) in Thessaloniki have participated in subsidized investment programs in the past five years. The highest participation rate is seen in the industrial sector (37%), while the lowest is in the trade sector (19%).

Participation is significantly higher among businesses with annual turnover over €1 million and more than 10 employees. It is significantly lower among businesses with annual turnover under €300,000 and 10 employees or fewer. Among those who have participated in such programs:

• 15% report being very satisfied
• 49% are fairly satisfied
• 21% express moderate satisfaction
• 13% in total report being slightly (8%) or not at all (5%) satisfied

In general, 2 in 3 businesses (67%) believe that subsidized investment programs are very (34%) or fairly (33%) important tools for entrepreneurship.

Finally, when faced with the choice between subsidized development programs and indirect tax incentives, 29% of businesses choose the subsidized investment programs, while 63% prefer indirect tax incentives.

Thessaloniki, April 10^th, 2025

Palmos Analysis